Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $243 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$243
$57.26
65.2¢ → 96.8¢
+48% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $50 | $74.65 | +$24.65 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
 oieshfn345<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $49.92 | $74.53 | +$22.66 | 57% 1460-1082 (2542) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $54.12 | $68.06 | +$13.94 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $18.46 | $23.91 | +$5.45 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $1.32 | $1 | -$0.32 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $9.96 | $0.84 | -$9.12 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
Invested
$50
Value
$74.65
PnL
+$24.65
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
oieshfn345<$100Invested
$49.92
Value
$74.53
PnL
+$22.66
Record
57%
1460-1082 (2542)
Invested
$54.12
Value
$68.06
PnL
+$13.94
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.46
Value
$23.91
PnL
+$5.45
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.32
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$9.96
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$9.12
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.