Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 24¢ · $637 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$637
-$35.93
57.7¢ → 23.5¢
-59% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 41.8¢ | $101.69 | $410.84 | +$309.15 | 57% 1460-1082 (2542) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41.8¢ | $185.04 | $230.36 | +$173.79 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 12¢ | $45.12 | $180.48 | +$135.36 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 60¢ | $180 | $105.28 | -$25.04 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $79.85 | $73.45 | -$6.4 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.6¢ | $38.8 | $35.42 | -$3.38 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.4¢ | $13.11 | $12 | -$1.11 | 57% 1506-1114 (2620) |
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$101.69
Value
$410.84
PnL
+$309.15
Record
57%
1460-1082 (2542)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$180
Value
$105.28
PnL
-$25.04
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$79.85
Value
$73.45
PnL
-$6.4
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
Invested
$38.8
Value
$35.42
PnL
-$3.38
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$13.11
Value
$12
PnL
-$1.11
Record
57%
1506-1114 (2620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.