Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kristiansund BK vs. KFUM-Kameratene Oslo: Both Teams to Score
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 45¢ · $744 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$744.42
$23.82
40.5¢ → 45¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Noavg 40¢ | $360.74 | $369.76 | +$22.55 | 59% 3066-2116 (5182) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 40.8¢ | $140.28 | $141.04 | +$0.76 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 41.4¢ | $127.6 | $126.28 | +$3.3 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 41¢ | $215.25 | $79.95 | +$0 | 58% 31731-22975 (54706) |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $30.18 | $27.39 | -$2.79 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
Invested
$360.74
Value
$369.76
PnL
+$22.55
Record
59%
3066-2116 (5182)
Invested
$140.28
Value
$141.04
PnL
+$0.76
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Invested
$127.6
Value
$126.28
PnL
+$3.3
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$215.25
Value
$79.95
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
31731-22975 (54706)
Invested
$30.18
Value
$27.39
PnL
-$2.79
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.