Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 66¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$158

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 66.5¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,697

Combined PnL+$157.47

No2 traders

Total Value$17.25

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$0.53

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aenews2	Yesavg 58.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$189.33	60% 1753-1156 (2909)
C0 C03B	Yesavg 66.5¢	$474.27	$442.42	-$31.86	86% 654-105 (759)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 66.6¢	$441.49	$435.38	-$4.41	43% 269-355 (624)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.6¢	$289.77	$291.49	+$1.72
└ No leg	Noavg 34.4¢	$149.94	$143.89	-$6.13
RA ratedCTR<$100	Noavg 34.3¢	$15.24	$15.48	+$0.24	35% 2801-5200 (8001)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Noavg 31.8¢	$1.48	$1.76	+$0.29	36% 1985-3488 (5473)

aenews2

Yes

Invested

$1,754.62

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$189.33

Record

60%

1753-1156 (2909)

C03B

Yes

Invested

$474.27

Value

$442.42

PnL

-$31.86

Record

86%

654-105 (759)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$441.49

Value

$435.38

PnL

-$4.41

Record

43%

269-355 (624)

Both legs:

Yes$289.7766.6¢+$1.72

No$149.9434.4¢-$6.13

ratedCTR<$100

Invested

$15.24

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$0.24

Record

35%

2801-5200 (8001)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.29

Record

36%

1985-3488 (5473)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.3%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.