Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 3.4¢ · $695 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$695.33
$46.24
34.7¢ → 3.4¢
-90% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI singularityman | Noavg 14¢ | $39.62 | $265.17 | +$225.55 | 42% 137-191 (328) |
 balthazar | Noavg 39.1¢ | $93.93 | $231.35 | +$137.42 | 62% 18410-11080 (29490) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Noavg 13.9¢ | $11.88 | $92.77 | +$80.89 | 48% 4177-4612 (8789) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $459.58 | $75.52 | -$312.01 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $104.49 | $27.99 | -$76.5 | 51% 1622-1582 (3204) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $11.64 | $2.53 | -$9.11 | 47% 124-141 (265) |
Invested
$39.62
Value
$265.17
PnL
+$225.55
Record
42%
137-191 (328)
balthazarInvested
$93.93
Value
$231.35
PnL
+$137.42
Record
62%
18410-11080 (29490)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$92.77
PnL
+$80.89
Record
48%
4177-4612 (8789)
Invested
$459.58
Value
$75.52
PnL
-$312.01
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
Invested
$104.49
Value
$27.99
PnL
-$76.5
Record
51%
1622-1582 (3204)
Invested
$11.64
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$9.11
Record
47%
124-141 (265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.