No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 74¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
$453.64
70.8¢ → 73.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
534h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FI firegold | Yesavg 69.8¢ | $370.18 | $2.5K | +$203.25 | 61% 272-177 (449) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Yesavg 65.3¢ | $1.2K | $722.65 | +$45.23 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 65.3¢ | $423.07 | $498.96 | -$9.11 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 25.8¢ | $303.84 | $223.69 | +$54.34 | |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 80.5¢ | $640.5 | $239.84 | +$260.09 | 52% 988-911 (1899) |
RO rocky42019CTR | Noavg 39.3¢ | $114.27 | $63.32 | -$50.95 | 42% 1475-2025 (3500) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $6.25 | $47.5 | +$41.25 | 48% 1997-2166 (4163) |
Invested
$370.18
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$203.25
Record
61%
272-177 (449)
Invested
$1,233.39
Value
$722.65
PnL
+$45.23
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Both legs:
Invested
$640.5
Value
$239.84
PnL
+$260.09
Record
52%
988-911 (1899)
Invested
$114.27
Value
$63.32
PnL
-$50.95
Record
42%
1475-2025 (3500)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$6.25
Value
$47.5
PnL
+$41.25
Record
48%
1997-2166 (4163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.