Maple Leafs vs. Flames: O/U 7.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 55¢ · $497 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$496.92
$14.79
68.1¢ → 55¢
-19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cassandra.torchlight | Underavg 68¢ | $500 | $463.24 | +$7.35 | 49% 251-258 (509) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 27.4¢ | $11.87 | $18.18 | +$6.31 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $11.92 | $13.85 | +$1.93 | 56% 6781-5428 (12209) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $2.46 | $1.65 | -$0.81 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.