Maple Leafs vs. Flames: O/U 6.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$39.02

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,566

Combined PnL-$160.49

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,601

Combined PnL+$121.46

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roldy	Overavg 53¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$160.49	55% 1397-1153 (2550)
ComingBackCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$95.74	62% 3795-2300 (6095)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 46¢	$120.38	$134.77	+$14.39	53% 5255-4588 (9843)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$81.94	$91.74	+$9.8	54% 15474-12956 (28430)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$15.98	$17.51	+$1.53	63% 5890-3452 (9342)

roldy

Over

Invested

$1,890.17

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$160.49

Record

55%

1397-1153 (2550)

ComingBackCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$95.74

Record

62%

3795-2300 (6095)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$120.38

Value

$134.77

PnL

+$14.39

Record

53%

5255-4588 (9843)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.94

Value

$91.74

PnL

+$9.8

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.98

Value

$17.51

PnL

+$1.53

Record

63%

5890-3452 (9342)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.