Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Flames (33%) · Flames at 87¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 27

Maple Leafs13¢Flames87¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flames

Consensus Traders

Flames 33%

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$54.76

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 87¢

+34% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlames at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flames

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Maple Leafs13%

Flames87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flames2 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares11,144

Combined PnL+$76.42

Maple Leafs4 traders

Total Value$759.33

Total Shares2,233

Combined PnL-$21.66

Flames — 33%Maple Leafs — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversion	Flamesavg 64.8¢	$7.2K	$7.3K	+$76.09	53% 110-99 (209)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Maple Leafsavg 35¢	$726.38	$705.63	-$20.75	54% 16251-13613 (29864)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 36¢	$26.28	$24.82	-$1.1	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 34¢	$20.94	$20.94	+$0.31	56% 6752-5410 (12162)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Flamesavg 63¢	$8.19	$8.45	+$0.33	53% 5383-4728 (10111)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Maple Leafsavg 35¢	$8.05	$7.94	-$0.12	54% 2869-2443 (5312)

taylorsversion

Flames

Invested

$7,214.6

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$76.09

Record

53%

110-99 (209)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Maple Leafs

Invested

$726.38

Value

$705.63

PnL

-$20.75

Record

54%

16251-13613 (29864)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$26.28

Value

$24.82

PnL

-$1.1

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$20.94

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$0.31

Record

56%

6752-5410 (12162)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Flames

Invested

$8.19

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

5383-4728 (10111)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$8.05

Value

$7.94

PnL

-$0.12

Record

54%

2869-2443 (5312)

Research grade

NeutralFlames at 87%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Flames

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flames wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.