Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Flames, while the market favors Maple Leafs (56%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Flames (33%) · Flames at 44¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 27

Maple Leafs56¢Flames44¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flames

Consensus Traders

Flames 33%

Total Value

$22.9K

Combined PnL

-$72.1

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 43.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlames at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flames

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Maple Leafs 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Maple Leafs56%

Flames44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flames3 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares27,095

Combined PnL-$125.23

Maple Leafs6 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares19,701

Combined PnL+$53.13

Flames — 33%Maple Leafs — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Flames. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Flames) and the top 1000 (7 on Maple Leafs) disagree here.

whaleMaple Leafs 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpMaple Leafs 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrFlames 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFlames 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 86% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Flamesavg 44¢	$8.8K	$8.7K	-$99.93	54% 872-742 (1614)
one8tyfive	Maple Leafsavg 56¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$50	65% 2038-1100 (3138)
FeedTheBigBird	Maple Leafsavg 56¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$26.04	51% 31-30 (61)
CO cocococococoCTR	Flamesavg 44¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$30.08	52% 1621-1485 (3106)
cassandra.torchlight	Maple Leafsavg 57¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$33	51% 238-229 (467)
RO roldyCTR	Flamesavg 43¢	$410.64	$415.41	+$4.77	61% 1353-860 (2213)
beet420	Maple Leafsavg 56¢	$245.07	$247.26	+$2.19	54% 253-219 (472)
PA para-Vision	Maple Leafsavg 55¢	$227.2	$233.39	+$6.2	57% 188-141 (329)
scootergene	Maple Leafsavg 56¢	$192.06	$193.77	+$1.72	56% 346-273 (619)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Flames

Invested

$8,799.98

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$99.93

Record

54%

872-742 (1614)

one8tyfive

Maple Leafs

Invested

$5,600

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$50

Record

65%

2038-1100 (3138)

FeedTheBigBird

Maple Leafs

Invested

$2,915.96

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$26.04

Record

51%

31-30 (61)

cocococococoCTR

Flames

Invested

$2,701.21

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$30.08

Record

52%

1621-1485 (3106)

cassandra.torchlight

Maple Leafs

Invested

$1,881

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$33

Record

51%

238-229 (467)

roldyCTR

Flames

Invested

$410.64

Value

$415.41

PnL

+$4.77

Record

61%

1353-860 (2213)

beet420

Maple Leafs

Invested

$245.07

Value

$247.26

PnL

+$2.19

Record

54%

253-219 (472)

para-Vision

Maple Leafs

Invested

$227.2

Value

$233.39

PnL

+$6.2

Record

57%

188-141 (329)

scootergene

Maple Leafs

Invested

$192.06

Value

$193.77

PnL

+$1.72

Record

56%

346-273 (619)

Research grade

NeutralFlames at 44%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Flames

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Maple Leafs 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Flames. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Flames) and the top 1000 (7 on Maple Leafs) disagree here.

whaleMaple Leafs 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpMaple Leafs 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrFlames 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFlames 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 86% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flames wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.