Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (64%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Islanders vs. Stars: O/U 6.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 36¢ · $822 held · ends Oct 25

Over36¢Under64¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$822.13

Combined PnL

$15.23

Smart Money Entry

36.1¢ → 36¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$789.48

Total Shares2,193

Combined PnL+$14.97

Under1 trader

Total Value$32.65

Total Shares52

Combined PnL+$0.26

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 36.1¢	$391.45	$390.6	+$15.43	56% 6365-5100 (11465)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 36¢	$360	$360	+$0	69% 4286-1924 (6210)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 36.4¢	$39.34	$38.88	-$0.46	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
CH chubbytoro<$100	Underavg 62¢	$32.39	$32.65	+$0.26	50% 70-71 (141)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$391.45

Value

$390.6

PnL

+$15.43

Record

56%

6365-5100 (11465)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$360

Value

$360

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

4286-1924 (6210)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.34

Value

$38.88

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

chubbytoro<$100

Under

Invested

$32.39

Value

$32.65

PnL

+$0.26

Record

50%

70-71 (141)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 36%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.