Islanders vs. Stars: O/U 5.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 55¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 29%
$7.9K
$24.36
52.8¢ → 54.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoro | Underavg 52.8¢ | $5.2K | $5.3K | +$73.55 | 50% 70-71 (141) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$12.13 | 68% 31590-15191 (46781) |
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $968.75 | -$31.25 | 62% 3703-2249 (5952) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $480.25 | $475.05 | -$5.2 | 56% 6406-5129 (11535) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 47.3¢ | $60.13 | $59.06 | -$1.07 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
LP lpcapital1<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $44.28 | $44.69 | +$0.41 | 74% 1125-390 (1515) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $5.65 | $5.65 | +$0.06 | 47% 2029-2262 (4291) |
Invested
$5,190.44
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$73.55
Record
50%
70-71 (141)
Invested
$1,139.75
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$12.13
Record
68%
31590-15191 (46781)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$968.75
PnL
-$31.25
Record
62%
3703-2249 (5952)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$480.25
Value
$475.05
PnL
-$5.2
Record
56%
6406-5129 (11535)
Invested
$60.13
Value
$59.06
PnL
-$1.07
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
Invested
$44.28
Value
$44.69
PnL
+$0.41
Record
74%
1125-390 (1515)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.65
PnL
+$0.06
Record
47%
2029-2262 (4291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.