Spread: Stars (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Islanders (38%) · Islanders at 70¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Stars30¢Islanders70¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Islanders

Consensus Traders

Islanders 38%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$84.08

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 70¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralIslanders at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Stars30%

Islanders70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Islanders3 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares10,157

Combined PnL+$103.05

Stars5 traders

Total Value$828

Total Shares2,160

Combined PnL-$18.98

Islanders — 38%Stars — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIslanders 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpStars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrStars 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedStars 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Islandersavg 62¢	$6.2K	$6.3K	+$99.54	49% 72-76 (148)
VeryLucky888CTR	Starsavg 38¢	$760	$740	-$20	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
0xheavy888<$100	Islandersavg 60¢	$69.25	$72.25	+$3	56% 6455-5169 (11624)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Islandersavg 47¢	$48.41	$48.93	+$0.52	59% 14319-9905 (24224)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Starsavg 38¢	$46.5	$46.35	+$0.38	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Starsavg 53.1¢	$27.72	$28.2	+$0.48	55% 9244-7582 (16826)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Starsavg 38¢	$9.12	$8.88	+$0	75% 2697-920 (3617)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR<$100	Starsavg 52¢	$4.4	$4.57	+$0.17	50% 1033-1030 (2063)

chubbytoro

Islanders

Invested

$6,171.47

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$99.54

Record

49%

72-76 (148)

VeryLucky888CTR

Stars

Invested

$760

Value

$740

PnL

-$20

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

0xheavy888<$100

Islanders

Invested

$69.25

Value

$72.25

PnL

+$3

Record

56%

6455-5169 (11624)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Islanders

Invested

$48.41

Value

$48.93

PnL

+$0.52

Record

59%

14319-9905 (24224)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Stars

Invested

$46.5

Value

$46.35

PnL

+$0.38

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Stars

Invested

$27.72

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$0.48

Record

55%

9244-7582 (16826)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Stars

Invested

$9.12

Value

$8.88

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

2697-920 (3617)

mooseborzoiiCTR<$100

Stars

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

Research grade

NeutralIslanders at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIslanders 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpStars 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrStars 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedStars 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Islanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.