Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Islanders, while the market favors Stars (61%). 5 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Islanders vs. Stars

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Islanders (33%) · Islanders at 40¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Islanders40¢Stars60¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Islanders

Consensus Traders

Islanders 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$239.1

Smart Money Entry

36.4¢ → 39.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralIslanders at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Stars 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Islanders40%

Stars61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Islanders5 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares16,772

Combined PnL+$271.25

Stars10 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,897

Combined PnL-$32.14

Islanders — 33%Stars — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleStars 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpStars 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrStars 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedStars 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoroCTR	Islandersavg 37¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$161.3	49% 72-76 (148)
VeryLucky888	Starsavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$10	58% 32399-23548 (55947)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Starsavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$20	51% 1037-994 (2031)
NO NordhavenCap	Starsavg 63.7¢	$441.35	$421.99	+$11.52	58% 1734-1241 (2975)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Islandersavg 22.1¢	$152.64	$253.92	+$101.28	50% 1033-1030 (2063)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Starsavg 66.7¢	$119.86	$117.04	-$2.82	58% 16269-11892 (28161)
└ Stars leg	Starsavg 66.7¢	$88.71	$82.46	-$6.25
└ Islanders leg	Islandersavg 34.2¢	$31.15	$34.58	+$3.43
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Starsavg 75¢	$69.17	$70.68	+$1.51	53% 12381-11073 (23454)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Starsavg 78¢	$49.88	$47.9	-$1.98	68% 31996-15360 (47356)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Starsavg 78¢	$39	$31	-$8	55% 9244-7582 (16826)
0xheavy888<$100	Starsavg 62¢	$31	$31	+$0	56% 6455-5169 (11624)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Starsavg 72.9¢	$32.89	$27.98	-$4.92	52% 6989-6369 (13358)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Starsavg 63¢	$21.42	$21.08	-$0.17	54% 14164-11846 (26010)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Islandersavg 17¢	$5.35	$11.96	+$6.61	61% 2675-1696 (4371)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Islandersavg 27¢	$7.74	$9.38	+$1.64	71% 18115-7363 (25478)
0X 0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274<$100	Starsavg 64¢	$3.45	$3.34	-$0.11	55% 396-321 (717)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Islandersavg 28¢	$1.16	$1.57	+$0.41	56% 1802-1398 (3200)

chubbytoroCTR

Islanders

Invested

$5,968.19

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$161.3

Record

49%

72-76 (148)

VeryLucky888

Stars

Invested

$1,260

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Stars

Invested

$1,260

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$20

Record

51%

1037-994 (2031)

NordhavenCap

Stars

Invested

$441.35

Value

$421.99

PnL

+$11.52

Record

58%

1734-1241 (2975)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Islanders

Invested

$152.64

Value

$253.92

PnL

+$101.28

Record

50%

1033-1030 (2063)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Stars

Invested

$119.86

Value

$117.04

PnL

-$2.82

Record

58%

16269-11892 (28161)

Both legs:

Stars$88.7166.7¢-$6.25

Islanders$31.1534.2¢+$3.43

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Stars

Invested

$69.17

Value

$70.68

PnL

+$1.51

Record

53%

12381-11073 (23454)

UpTheBlues<$100

Stars

Invested

$49.88

Value

$47.9

PnL

-$1.98

Record

68%

31996-15360 (47356)

BoomLaLa<$100

Stars

Invested

$39

Value

$31

PnL

-$8

Record

55%

9244-7582 (16826)

0xheavy888<$100

Stars

Invested

$31

Value

$31

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

6455-5169 (11624)

justaluckydude<$100

Stars

Invested

$32.89

Value

$27.98

PnL

-$4.92

Record

52%

6989-6369 (13358)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Stars

Invested

$21.42

Value

$21.08

PnL

-$0.17

Record

54%

14164-11846 (26010)

shiifooCTR<$100

Islanders

Invested

$5.35

Value

$11.96

PnL

+$6.61

Record

61%

2675-1696 (4371)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Islanders

Invested

$7.74

Value

$9.38

PnL

+$1.64

Record

71%

18115-7363 (25478)

0xfC0847fe2Ea938D6e2624650eB29eF8d8142A137-1771999665274<$100

Stars

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.34

PnL

-$0.11

Record

55%

396-321 (717)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Islanders

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.57

PnL

+$0.41

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

Research grade

NeutralIslanders at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Islanders

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Stars 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Islanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleStars 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpStars 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrStars 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedStars 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Stars 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Islanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.