Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 6.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 86¢ · $699 held · ended Oct 25

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$699.16

Combined PnL

$138.04

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 85.5¢

+43% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$589.16

Total Shares679

Combined PnL+$139.29

Over1 trader

Total Value$110

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$1.25

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 60¢	$366	$524.6	+$122	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 43¢	$107.5	$110	-$1.25	41% 527-761 (1288)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 57¢	$41.69	$59.1	+$17.41	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 57¢	$3.42	$3.36	+$0.03	61% 4757-3017 (7774)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 60¢	$2.25	$2.1	-$0.15	56% 1868-1468 (3336)

RN1

Under

Invested

$366

Value

$524.6

PnL

+$122

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$107.5

Value

$110

PnL

-$1.25

Record

41%

527-761 (1288)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$41.69

Value

$59.1

PnL

+$17.41

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0.03

Record

61%

4757-3017 (7774)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.15

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.