Canadiens vs. Jets: O/U 5.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$655.3

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 78¢

+43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,903

Combined PnL+$654.16

Over2 traders

Total Value$150.36

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$1.14

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBack	Underavg 55.2¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$620.27	62% 3719-2260 (5979)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 54¢	$145.64	$145.64	+$1.35	41% 527-761 (1288)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 46¢	$56.53	$90.94	+$34.41	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$48.5	$50	+$1.5	56% 6496-5192 (11688)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$26	$27	+$1
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$22.5	$23	+$0.5
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 47¢	$30.55	$29.9	-$0.32	61% 4757-3017 (7774)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 35.5¢	$4.94	$4.73	-$0.21	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 49¢	$3.92	$3.68	-$0.24	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.3	+$0.05	55% 9256-7588 (16844)

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$1,500

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$620.27

Record

62%

3719-2260 (5979)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$145.64

Value

$145.64

PnL

+$1.35

Record

41%

527-761 (1288)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$56.53

Value

$90.94

PnL

+$34.41

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$48.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

6496-5192 (11688)

Both legs:

Over$2652¢+$1

Under$22.545¢+$0.5

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$30.55

Value

$29.9

PnL

-$0.32

Record

61%

4757-3017 (7774)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.21

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.24

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

9256-7588 (16844)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.