Spread: Jets (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (50%) · Canadiens at 73¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Jets27¢Canadiens73¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canadiens

Consensus Traders

Canadiens 50%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$2.23

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 73¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jets27%

Canadiens73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Canadiens2 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,112

Combined PnL+$0

Jets2 traders

Total Value$366.08

Total Shares1,288

Combined PnL+$2.23

Canadiens — 50%Jets — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Canadiensavg 73¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$0	56% 6496-5192 (11688)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Jetsavg 27¢	$301.59	$301.59	+$0	54% 256-214 (470)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jetsavg 25.8¢	$62.39	$64.49	+$2.23	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Canadiensavg 73¢	$8.76	$8.76	+$0	75% 2701-921 (3622)

0xheavy888

Canadiens

Invested

$3,723

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

6496-5192 (11688)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Jets

Invested

$301.59

Value

$301.59

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

256-214 (470)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$62.39

Value

$64.49

PnL

+$2.23

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$8.76

Value

$8.76

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

2701-921 (3622)

Research grade

NeutralCanadiens at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Canadiens

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canadiens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.