Canadiens vs. Jets
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Canadiens (60%) · Canadiens at 54¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Canadiens
5
Canadiens 60%
$5.3K
-$3.78
53.1¢ → 53.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralCanadiens at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldy | Canadiensavg 53¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$27.86 | 61% 1353-859 (2212) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Jetsavg 47.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$32.5 | 51% 237-227 (464) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Canadiensavg 53¢ | $396 | $399.73 | +$3.74 | 69% 4261-1921 (6182) |
CO cocococococo | Canadiensavg 54¢ | $299.7 | $294.15 | -$2.78 | 52% 1619-1484 (3103) |
 KnureKnumeCTR<$100 | Jetsavg 47¢ | $10.34 | $10.34 | -$0.11 | 48% 395-427 (822) |
Invested
$2,946.84
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$27.86
Record
61%
1353-859 (2212)
cassandra.torchlightCTRInvested
$1,659.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$32.5
Record
51%
237-227 (464)
Invested
$396
Value
$399.73
PnL
+$3.74
Record
69%
4261-1921 (6182)
Invested
$299.7
Value
$294.15
PnL
-$2.78
Record
52%
1619-1484 (3103)
KnureKnumeCTR<$100Invested
$10.34
Value
$10.34
PnL
-$0.11
Record
48%
395-427 (822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.