Canadiens vs. Blues

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Blues (22%) · Blues at 54¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 28

Canadiens47¢Blues53¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Blues

Consensus Traders

Blues 22%

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

-$109.91

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralBlues at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Blues

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Canadiens47%

Blues54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Blues2 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares19,830

Combined PnL+$51.55

Canadiens7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares14,282

Combined PnL-$161.46

Blues — 22%Canadiens — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCanadiens 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCanadiens 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCanadiens 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Canadiens 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RU rustin	Bluesavg 52.6¢	$9.9K	$10.0K	+$74.62	48% 473-510 (983)
RO roldyCTR	Canadiensavg 48¢	$6.0K	$2.8K	-$90	55% 1404-1162 (2566)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$50	47% 2366-2633 (4999)
VeryLucky888CTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$940	$920	-$10	58% 40340-29132 (69472)
cassandra.torchlight	Bluesavg 53¢	$515.65	$492.58	-$23.07	49% 254-263 (517)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$470	$460	-$10	53% 5465-4807 (10272)
0xheavy888CTR	Canadiensavg 47¢	$200	$93	-$1	56% 6824-5466 (12290)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Canadiensavg 47.5¢	$27.55	$26.68	-$0.58	58% 27838-20469 (48307)
PA para-VisionCTR<$100	Canadiensavg 46¢	$23.52	$10.94	+$0.12	56% 194-154 (348)

rustin

Blues

Invested

$9,942.62

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$74.62

Record

48%

473-510 (983)

roldyCTR

Canadiens

Invested

$5,999.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$90

Record

55%

1404-1162 (2566)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$2,350

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$50

Record

47%

2366-2633 (4999)

VeryLucky888CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$940

Value

$920

PnL

-$10

Record

58%

40340-29132 (69472)

cassandra.torchlight

Blues

Invested

$515.65

Value

$492.58

PnL

-$23.07

Record

49%

254-263 (517)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$470

Value

$460

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5465-4807 (10272)

0xheavy888CTR

Canadiens

Invested

$200

Value

$93

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

6824-5466 (12290)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$27.55

Value

$26.68

PnL

-$0.58

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

para-VisionCTR<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$23.52

Value

$10.94

PnL

+$0.12

Record

56%

194-154 (348)

Research grade

NeutralBlues at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Blues

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Blues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCanadiens 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCanadiens 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCanadiens 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Canadiens 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Blues wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.