Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wild vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 34¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$15.16

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 33.5¢

-29% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,469

Combined PnL-$15.87

Under6 traders

Total Value$217.02

Total Shares338

Combined PnL+$0.71

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$29.41	62% 3731-2269 (6000)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Overavg 31.7¢	$154.92	$109.79	-$45.12	54% 260-224 (484)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 65¢	$109.96	$108.27	-$1.69	50% 16195-16429 (32624)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 75¢	$48	$50	+$2	55% 9381-7699 (17080)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$32.97	$31.93	-$1.04	62% 4966-3093 (8059)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 49¢	$13.42	$13	-$0.41	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
C4 0xc4fe...601f<$100	Underavg 45¢	$9.81	$11.55	+$1.74	—
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$4	$4.2	+$0.2	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$3.84	$3.48	-$0.36	49% 365-385 (750)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.16	$2.27	+$0.11	56% 1934-1543 (3477)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$29.41

Record

62%

3731-2269 (6000)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Over

Invested

$154.92

Value

$109.79

PnL

-$45.12

Record

54%

260-224 (484)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$109.96

Value

$108.27

PnL

-$1.69

Record

50%

16195-16429 (32624)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$48

Value

$50

PnL

+$2

Record

55%

9381-7699 (17080)

Forecastication2<$100

Under

Invested

$32.97

Value

$31.93

PnL

-$1.04

Record

62%

4966-3093 (8059)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$13.42

Value

$13

PnL

-$0.41

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

0xc4fe...601f<$100

Under

Invested

$9.81

Value

$11.55

PnL

+$1.74

Record

—

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

seeeeeebCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.84

Value

$3.48

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

365-385 (750)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.27

PnL

+$0.11

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 34%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.