Spread: Wild (-1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Canucks (71%) · Canucks at 56¢ · $73K held · ended Oct 26

Wild45¢Canucks55¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Canucks

Consensus Traders

Canucks 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$73.1K

Combined PnL

$82.07

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 55.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCanucks at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Wild45%

Canucks56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wild2 traders

Total Value$32.6K

Total Shares76,517

Combined PnL-$318.19

Canucks5 traders

Total Value$40.4K

Total Shares70,247

Combined PnL+$400.25

Wild — 29%Canucks — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Canucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCanucks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrCanucks 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedCanucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Canucks 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188CTR	Wildavg 43¢	$30.0K	$29.6K	-$348.29	47% 249-276 (525)
DO Donkey14	Canucksavg 57¢	$26.5K	$26.7K	+$232.56	49% 338-351 (689)
BO Bozos14	Canucksavg 57¢	$6.6K	$6.7K	+$58.14	49% 140-144 (284)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Wildavg 43.6¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.1	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
0xheavy888	Canucksavg 57¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$24.53	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
MO mooseborzoii	Canucksavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$75.03	50% 1054-1050 (2104)
VeryLucky888	Canucksavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Canucksavg 57.3¢	$85.87	$86.4	+$0.53	56% 21078-16865 (37943)
└ Canucks leg	Canucksavg 57.3¢	$57.31	$57.5	+$0.19
└ Wild leg	Wildavg 42¢	$28.56	$28.9	+$0.34

0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188CTR

Wild

Invested

$29,952.96

Value

$29.6K

PnL

-$348.29

Record

47%

249-276 (525)

Donkey14

Canucks

Invested

$26,511.62

Value

$26.7K

PnL

+$232.56

Record

49%

338-351 (689)

Bozos14

Canucks

Invested

$6,627.9

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$58.14

Record

49%

140-144 (284)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Wild

Invested

$2,988.04

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.1

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

0xheavy888

Canucks

Invested

$2,911.42

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$24.53

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

mooseborzoii

Canucks

Invested

$2,800.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$75.03

Record

50%

1054-1050 (2104)

VeryLucky888

Canucks

Invested

$1,140

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Canucks

Invested

$85.87

Value

$86.4

PnL

+$0.53

Record

56%

21078-16865 (37943)

Both legs:

Canucks$57.3157.3¢+$0.19

Wild$28.5642¢+$0.34

Research grade

NeutralCanucks at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Canucks

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Canucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCanucks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrCanucks 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedCanucks 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Canucks 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Canucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.