Wild vs. Canucks

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Wild (50%) · Wild at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

Wild64¢Canucks36¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Wild

Consensus Traders

Wild 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$3.74

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 64¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralWild at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wild

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Wild64%

Canucks36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wild2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,525

Combined PnL+$1.72

Canucks2 traders

Total Value$86.68

Total Shares241

Combined PnL+$2.02

Wild — 50%Canucks — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cassandra.torchlight	Wildavg 64¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	51% 231-226 (457)
CO cocococococo	Wildavg 63.8¢	$167.62	$168.03	+$1.72	52% 1617-1483 (3100)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Canucksavg 35¢	$70.63	$72.64	+$2.02	55% 4226-3419 (7645)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Canucksavg 36¢	$14.04	$14.04	+$0	54% 13750-11556 (25306)

cassandra.torchlight

Wild

Invested

$1,448

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

231-226 (457)

cocococococo

Wild

Invested

$167.62

Value

$168.03

PnL

+$1.72

Record

52%

1617-1483 (3100)

hi774cCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$70.63

Value

$72.64

PnL

+$2.02

Record

55%

4226-3419 (7645)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Canucks

Invested

$14.04

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13750-11556 (25306)

Research grade

NeutralWild at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Wild

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wild wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.