Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (87%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kings vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 13¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$2.3K
$8.4
58¢ → 13¢
-78% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 87%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 58¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$30 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
CH chubbytoro | Overavg 43¢ | $360.55 | $477.93 | +$117.39 | 48% 75-82 (157) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Underavg 58¢ | $580 | $440 | -$140 | 49% 250-256 (506) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 57.7¢ | $96.05 | $98.4 | +$3.32 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $28.2 | $28.2 | +$0 | 54% 2869-2443 (5312) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $6.56 | $6.72 | -$0.16 | 56% 6752-5410 (12162) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $4.26 | $2.11 | -$2.16 | 56% 11046-8595 (19641) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,160
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$30
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
Invested
$360.55
Value
$477.93
PnL
+$117.39
Record
48%
75-82 (157)
cassandra.torchlightCTRInvested
$580
Value
$440
PnL
-$140
Record
49%
250-256 (506)
Invested
$96.05
Value
$98.4
PnL
+$3.32
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$28.2
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
2869-2443 (5312)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$6.56
Value
$6.72
PnL
-$0.16
Record
56%
6752-5410 (12162)
Invested
$4.26
Value
$2.11
PnL
-$2.16
Record
56%
11046-8595 (19641)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.