Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kings vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$3.5K
-$49.18
46.9¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chubbytoro | Overavg 54¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$68.39 | 48% 75-82 (157) |
 ComingBackCTR | Underavg 47.7¢ | $1.0K | $911.11 | -$88.89 | 62% 3795-2300 (6095) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $838 | $792.46 | -$45.54 | 54% 15474-12956 (28430) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 52¢ | $248.71 | $266.05 | +$18.69 | 56% 6695-5367 (12062) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $33.58 | $31.76 | -$1.82 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
Invested
$1,477.33
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$68.39
Record
48%
75-82 (157)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,000
Value
$911.11
PnL
-$88.89
Record
62%
3795-2300 (6095)
Invested
$838
Value
$792.46
PnL
-$45.54
Record
54%
15474-12956 (28430)
0xheavy888Invested
$248.71
Value
$266.05
PnL
+$18.69
Record
56%
6695-5367 (12062)
Invested
$33.58
Value
$31.76
PnL
-$1.82
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.