Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rangers, while the market favors Kings (96%). 1 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rangers (14%) · $4K held · ended Oct 26
🔄
Contrarian
Rangers
7
Rangers 14%
$3.9K
$-8.7K
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)Underdog side (market favors Kings 96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversion | Rangersavg 33¢ | $18.1K | $2.3K | $-15.8K | 53% 110-99 (209) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Kingsavg 67¢ | $21.0K | $1.1K | +$7.2K | 54% 16251-13613 (29864) |
 tradecraft | Kingsavg 67¢ | $210.25 | $287.13 | +$76.88 | 52% 5780-5396 (11176) |
 0xheavy888 | Kingsavg 66.5¢ | $132.99 | $137.99 | +$6 | 56% 6752-5410 (12162) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Kingsavg 67¢ | $21.44 | $22.08 | +$0.64 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks | Kingsavg 67.4¢ | $242.06 | $12.57 | -$229.5 | 54% 2869-2443 (5312) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Kingsavg 67¢ | $2.01 | $0.11 | +$0.38 | 54% 2262-1899 (4161) |
Invested
$18,099.3
Value
$2.3K
PnL
$-15.8K
Record
53%
110-99 (209)
Invested
$20,985.86
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$7.2K
Record
54%
16251-13613 (29864)
tradecraftInvested
$210.25
Value
$287.13
PnL
+$76.88
Record
52%
5780-5396 (11176)
0xheavy888Invested
$132.99
Value
$137.99
PnL
+$6
Record
56%
6752-5410 (12162)
Invested
$21.44
Value
$22.08
PnL
+$0.64
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
Invested
$242.06
Value
$12.57
PnL
-$229.5
Record
54%
2869-2443 (5312)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.01
Value
$0.11
PnL
+$0.38
Record
54%
2262-1899 (4161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.