Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Rangers (56%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Kings vs. Rangers
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (80%) · Kings at 45¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Kings
5
Kings 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.9K
$38.26
44¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKings at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Rangers 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO roldyCTR | Kingsavg 44¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$28.38 | 55% 1396-1152 (2548) |
TA taylorsversion | Rangersavg 55¢ | $868.53 | $876.42 | +$7.9 | 53% 110-98 (208) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Kingsavg 44¢ | $244.2 | $244.2 | +$2.78 | 52% 1633-1513 (3146) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Rangersavg 54¢ | $758.98 | $153.64 | +$16.48 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
| └ Rangers leg | Rangersavg 54¢ | $82.99 | $86.04 | +$14.17 | |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 43¢ | $66.07 | $67.6 | +$2.3 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 44.4¢ | $87.49 | $86.65 | -$0.84 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
MR MrBentlyCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 44¢ | $10.25 | $4.56 | +$0.05 | 52% 488-442 (930) |
Invested
$2,497.35
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$28.38
Record
55%
1396-1152 (2548)
Invested
$868.53
Value
$876.42
PnL
+$7.9
Record
53%
110-98 (208)
Invested
$244.2
Value
$244.2
PnL
+$2.78
Record
52%
1633-1513 (3146)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$758.98
Value
$153.64
PnL
+$16.48
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
Both legs:
Invested
$87.49
Value
$86.65
PnL
-$0.84
Record
57%
24505-18852 (43357)
Invested
$10.25
Value
$4.56
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
488-442 (930)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.