Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Panthers vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 47¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 25

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

-$65.87

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares15,153

Combined PnL-$77.59

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,954

Combined PnL+$11.72

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 46.9¢	$6.1K	$6.0K	-$55.35	41% 514-751 (1265)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53.4¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$3.27	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 46¢	$1.0K	$978.26	-$21.74	62% 3695-2244 (5939)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 53¢	$882.66	$890.99	+$8.33	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$60.26	$60.07	+$0.66	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$39.1	$38.68	+$0.43
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.9¢	$21.16	$21.39	+$0.24
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$23	$22.5	-$0.5	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 54¢	$13.5	$13.63	+$0.13	75% 2670-903 (3573)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$6,067.6

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$55.35

Record

41%

514-751 (1265)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,347.69

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$3.27

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$978.26

PnL

-$21.74

Record

62%

3695-2244 (5939)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$882.66

Value

$890.99

PnL

+$8.33

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$60.26

Value

$60.07

PnL

+$0.66

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Both legs:

Over$39.146¢+$0.43

Under$21.1653.9¢+$0.24

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

75%

2670-903 (3573)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.