Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Blackhawks, while the market favors Panthers (62%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Panthers vs. Blackhawks
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Blackhawks (33%) · Blackhawks at 39¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Blackhawks
6
Blackhawks 33%
$22.3K
$283.66
37.8¢ → 38.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBlackhawks at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Panthers 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Blackhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taylorsversionCTR | Blackhawksavg 38¢ | $18.4K | $18.7K | +$265.91 | 53% 103-90 (193) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Blackhawksavg 36.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$17.91 | 52% 1618-1484 (3102) |
 VeryLucky888 | Panthersavg 62¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Panthersavg 62¢ | $620 | $620 | +$0 | 69% 4251-1917 (6168) |
 0xheavy888 | Panthersavg 62¢ | $124 | $124 | +$0 | 56% 6347-5081 (11428) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Panthersavg 62.4¢ | $110.9 | $110.74 | -$0.16 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
Invested
$18,439.13
Value
$18.7K
PnL
+$265.91
Record
53%
103-90 (193)
Invested
$1,446.78
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$17.91
Record
52%
1618-1484 (3102)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,240
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
Invested
$620
Value
$620
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
4251-1917 (6168)
0xheavy888Invested
$124
Value
$124
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
6347-5081 (11428)
Invested
$110.9
Value
$110.74
PnL
-$0.16
Record
54%
13805-11589 (25394)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.