Red Wings vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 54¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 27

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 13%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

-$356.52

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares18,686

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares12,511

Combined PnL+$767.46

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BrotherObama	Overavg 53.5¢	$10.0K	$8.9K	$-1.1K	41% 239-340 (579)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Underavg 46¢	$2.8K	$3.2K	+$390.28	47% 2254-2506 (4760)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$222.97	54% 15456-12940 (28396)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 47¢	$739.78	$826.35	+$86.57	50% 10896-11050 (21946)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Underavg 47¢	$470	$525	+$55	53% 5236-4559 (9795)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$46.5	$52.5	+$6	56% 6694-5364 (12058)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$33.37	$37.28	+$3.91	57% 24505-18852 (43357)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$19.32	$22.05	+$2.73	54% 2855-2433 (5288)

BrotherObama

Over

Invested

$10,000

Value

$8.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

41%

239-340 (579)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Under

Invested

$2,762.01

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$390.28

Record

47%

2254-2506 (4760)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$1,730

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$222.97

Record

54%

15456-12940 (28396)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$739.78

Value

$826.35

PnL

+$86.57

Record

50%

10896-11050 (21946)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Under

Invested

$470

Value

$525

PnL

+$55

Record

53%

5236-4559 (9795)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.5

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$6

Record

56%

6694-5364 (12058)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.37

Value

$37.28

PnL

+$3.91

Record

57%

24505-18852 (43357)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.32

Value

$22.05

PnL

+$2.73

Record

54%

2855-2433 (5288)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.