Spread: Oilers (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Red Wings (80%) · Red Wings at 75¢ · $216 held · ended Oct 27

Red Wings26¢Red Wings74¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Red Wings

Consensus Traders

Red Wings 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$215.98

Combined PnL

-$6.19

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 25.5¢

-55% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidRed Wings at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Red Wings26%

Red Wings75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oilers1 trader

Total Value$53.68

Total Shares98

Combined PnL+$13.66

Red Wings4 traders

Total Value$82.39

Total Shares176

Combined PnL-$19.86

Oilers — 20%Red Wings — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRed Wings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpRed Wings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRed Wings 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRed Wings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Red Wings 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Red Wingsavg 58.4¢	$88.85	$79.91	-$8.95	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
└ Red Wings leg	Red Wingsavg 58.4¢	$52.58	$43.2	-$9.39
└ Oilers leg	Oilersavg 41¢	$36.27	$36.71	+$0.44
yabanci<$100	Oilersavg 41¢	$97.6	$53.68	+$13.66	65% 37-20 (57)
0xheavy888<$100	Red Wingsavg 58¢	$58	$44.5	-$13.5	56% 6781-5428 (12209)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Red Wingsavg 59¢	$24.19	$19.68	-$4.51	54% 2869-2446 (5315)
poshposh<$100	Red Wingsavg 53.3¢	$16.92	$15.23	-$1.7	61% 8896-5797 (14693)
HRTrading<$100	Red Wingsavg 48¢	$3.13	$2.98	-$0.15	54% 2345-1973 (4318)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$88.85

Value

$79.91

PnL

-$8.95

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

Both legs:

Red Wings$52.5858.4¢-$9.39

Oilers$36.2741¢+$0.44

yabanci<$100

Oilers

Invested

$97.6

Value

$53.68

PnL

+$13.66

Record

65%

37-20 (57)

0xheavy888<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$58

Value

$44.5

PnL

-$13.5

Record

56%

6781-5428 (12209)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$24.19

Value

$19.68

PnL

-$4.51

Record

54%

2869-2446 (5315)

poshposh<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$16.92

Value

$15.23

PnL

-$1.7

Record

61%

8896-5797 (14693)

HRTrading<$100

Red Wings

Invested

$3.13

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

Research grade

AvoidRed Wings at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Red Wings

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Red Wings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRed Wings 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpRed Wings 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRed Wings 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRed Wings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Red Wings 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Red Wings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.