Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Red Wings, while the market favors Oilers (62%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Red Wings vs. Oilers
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Red Wings (60%) · Red Wings at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Red Wings
5
Red Wings 60%
$2.3K
$25.21
38¢ → 38.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralRed Wings at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Oilers 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cocococococoCTR | Red Wingsavg 38¢ | $844.36 | $844.36 | +$11.11 | 52% 1632-1510 (3142) |
 cassandra.torchlightCTR | Red Wingsavg 38¢ | $607.97 | $615.98 | +$8.01 | 49% 248-254 (502) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Red Wingsavg 38¢ | $494.42 | $500.92 | +$6.51 | 58% 37344-27188 (64532) |
RO roldy | Oilersavg 61¢ | $224.96 | $224.96 | -$0 | 55% 1396-1148 (2544) |
LI Libratus007 | Oilersavg 61.8¢ | $100.66 | $100.25 | -$0.41 | — 1-0 (1) |
Invested
$844.36
Value
$844.36
PnL
+$11.11
Record
52%
1632-1510 (3142)
cassandra.torchlightCTRInvested
$607.97
Value
$615.98
PnL
+$8.01
Record
49%
248-254 (502)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$494.42
Value
$500.92
PnL
+$6.51
Record
58%
37344-27188 (64532)
Invested
$224.96
Value
$224.96
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
1396-1148 (2544)
Invested
$100.66
Value
$100.25
PnL
-$0.41
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.