Avalanche vs. Predators: O/U 7.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 70¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$3.67

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,246

Combined PnL+$4.67

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,736

Combined PnL-$1

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 70.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$4.67	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 29¢	$740.5	$739.5	-$1	56% 6496-5192 (11688)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 29¢	$179.06	$179.06	+$0	57% 4583-3398 (7981)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 29¢	$145	$145	+$0	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$20.7	$20.01	+$0	55% 14891-12190 (27081)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,009.85

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$4.67

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$740.5

Value

$739.5

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

6496-5192 (11688)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$179.06

Value

$179.06

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

4583-3398 (7981)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$145

Value

$145

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.7

Value

$20.01

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.