Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Avalanche vs. Predators: O/U 6.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 26

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$69.42

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 49.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,429

Combined PnL+$81.08

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,253

Combined PnL-$11.67

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA taylorsversionCTR	Underavg 48¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$80.9	53% 104-91 (195)
ComingBack	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$990.2	-$9.8	62% 3703-2249 (5952)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 51¢	$94.02	$93.1	-$0.92	59% 14139-9811 (23950)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 51.8¢	$31.2	$30.7	-$0.8	56% 6406-5129 (11535)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$18.13	$18.32	+$0.19	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 51¢	$14.28	$14.14	-$0.14	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 51¢	$10.2	$10.2	-$0	75% 2673-907 (3580)

taylorsversionCTR

Under

Invested

$2,588.38

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$80.9

Record

53%

104-91 (195)

ComingBack

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$990.2

PnL

-$9.8

Record

62%

3703-2249 (5952)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$94.02

Value

$93.1

PnL

-$0.92

Record

59%

14139-9811 (23950)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$31.2

Value

$30.7

PnL

-$0.8

Record

56%

6406-5129 (11535)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.13

Value

$18.32

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$14.28

Value

$14.14

PnL

-$0.14

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.2

PnL

-$0

Record

75%

2673-907 (3580)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.