Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Avalanche, while the market favors Predators (97%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Avalanche (40%) · Avalanche at 3.3¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Avalanche3¢Predators97¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Avalanche

Consensus Traders

Avalanche 40%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$7.77

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 3.3¢

-93% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidAvalanche at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Avalanche

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Predators 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Avalanche3%

Predators97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Avalanche2 traders

Total Value$917.6

Total Shares1,914

Combined PnL-$17.83

Predators3 traders

Total Value$705.92

Total Shares1,329

Combined PnL+$10.06

Avalanche — 40%Predators — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9E53cFE3E881636f9415aF925c3a9620F3ad53AE-1786656823375CTR	Avalancheavg 48¢	$900	$881.25	-$18.75	40% 47-70 (117)
0xheavy888	Predatorsavg 52¢	$673.7	$686.66	+$12.96	56% 6515-5214 (11729)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Avalancheavg 46¢	$35.62	$36.35	+$0.92	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Predatorsavg 53¢	$13.96	$13.96	-$0	75% 2705-923 (3628)
RN1<$100	Predatorsavg 82¢	$8.2	$5.3	-$2.9	55% 46138-38317 (84455)

0x9E53cFE3E881636f9415aF925c3a9620F3ad53AE-1786656823375CTR

Avalanche

Invested

$900

Value

$881.25

PnL

-$18.75

Record

40%

47-70 (117)

0xheavy888

Predators

Invested

$673.7

Value

$686.66

PnL

+$12.96

Record

56%

6515-5214 (11729)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$35.62

Value

$36.35

PnL

+$0.92

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Predators

Invested

$13.96

Value

$13.96

PnL

-$0

Record

75%

2705-923 (3628)

RN1<$100

Predators

Invested

$8.2

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$2.9

Record

55%

46138-38317 (84455)

Research grade

AvoidAvalanche at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Avalanche

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Predators 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Avalanche wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.5%

3.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2119.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

2219.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.