Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Predators, while the market favors Avalanche (68%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Avalanche vs. Predators
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (33%) · Predators at 32¢ · $425 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Predators
3
Predators 33%
$425.04
$11.53
Research grade
NeutralPredators at 32%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Avalanche 68%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Predatorsavg 31¢ | $341.93 | $352.96 | +$11.03 | 50% 1014-1005 (2019) |
JI jiafan<$100 | Avalancheavg 68¢ | $38.08 | $38.08 | +$0 | 61% 1311-833 (2144) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Avalancheavg 67¢ | $33.5 | $34 | +$0.5 | 54% 13818-11600 (25418) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.