Bruins vs. Hurricanes
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Hurricanes (67%) · Hurricanes at 63¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Hurricanes
3
Hurricanes 67%
$4.8K
-$30.88
64.2¢ → 63¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralHurricanes at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cocococococo | Hurricanesavg 64.2¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | -$65.49 | 52% 1635-1517 (3152) |
RO roldyCTR | Bruinsavg 36¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$34.6 | 55% 1401-1161 (2562) |
 PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN<$100 | Hurricanesavg 63¢ | $27.67 | $27.67 | -$0 | 53% 899-790 (1689) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.