Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (79%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 22¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$2.8K
-$80.83
67.2¢ → 21.5¢
-68% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 72¢ | $792.36 | $703.82 | -$88.54 | 52% 6814-6216 (13030) |
AN Anon455CTR | Underavg 65¢ | $650 | $660 | +$10 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 65¢ | $559 | $567.6 | +$8.6 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
NE neymar1 | Overavg 35¢ | $525 | $510 | -$15 | 33% 302-622 (924) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 65¢ | $357.68 | $361.79 | +$4.11 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
Invested
$792.36
Value
$703.82
PnL
-$88.54
Record
52%
6814-6216 (13030)
Invested
$650
Value
$660
PnL
+$10
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$559
Value
$567.6
PnL
+$8.6
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$525
Value
$510
PnL
-$15
Record
33%
302-622 (924)
Invested
$357.68
Value
$361.79
PnL
+$4.11
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.