Spread: Panthers (-5.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (83%) · Buccaneers at 98¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Buccaneers
6
Buccaneers 83%
$17.8K
$2.6K
60¢ → 98¢
+63% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBuccaneers at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Buccaneers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Buccaneersavg 60¢ | $8.0K | $10.5K | +$2.5K | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
 VeryLucky888 | Buccaneersavg 60¢ | $6.0K | $6.1K | +$100 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
AN Anon455 | Buccaneersavg 60¢ | $1.0K | $790 | +$190 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Panthersavg 38.2¢ | $1.2K | $253.69 | -$207.4 | 55% 3020-2458 (5478) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Buccaneersavg 61¢ | $76.86 | $76.86 | +$0 | 66% 2856-1504 (4360) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Buccaneersavg 60¢ | $40.8 | $41.48 | +$0.68 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
Invested
$8,008.78
Value
$10.5K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
VeryLucky888Invested
$6,000
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$100
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$790
PnL
+$190
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$1,208.07
Value
$253.69
PnL
-$207.4
Record
55%
3020-2458 (5478)
Invested
$76.86
Value
$76.86
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
2856-1504 (4360)
Invested
$40.8
Value
$41.48
PnL
+$0.68
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.