Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Buccaneers (96%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Buccaneers (-9.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (43%) · Panthers at 4.0¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Panthers
7
Panthers 43%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
-$774.1
46.1¢ → 4¢
-91% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPanthers at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Buccaneers 96%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Panthersavg 45.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$36.9 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Panthersavg 46¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$26.19 | 55% 3020-2458 (5478) |
KA KaneAnalytics | Buccaneersavg 39¢ | $2.0K | $815.84 | $-1.2K | 53% 317-282 (599) |
NE neymar1 | Buccaneersavg 15¢ | $185.56 | $683.09 | +$896.41 | 33% 302-622 (924) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Panthersavg 44.5¢ | $1.4K | $471.55 | -$961.85 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
| └ Panthers leg | Panthersavg 44.5¢ | $1.3K | $375.75 | -$962.4 | |
| └ Buccaneers leg | Buccaneersavg 87¢ | $95.25 | $95.8 | +$0.55 | |
CH chiefphi | Buccaneersavg 52.6¢ | $620.35 | $188.8 | -$431.55 | 54% 62-52 (114) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Panthersavg 84¢ | $63 | $63 | +$0 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Buccaneersavg 23.2¢ | $9.99 | $6.88 | -$3.11 | 52% 6814-6216 (13030) |
Invested
$2,206.58
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$36.9
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Invested
$1,075.05
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$26.19
Record
55%
3020-2458 (5478)
Invested
$1,988.61
Value
$815.84
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
53%
317-282 (599)
Invested
$185.56
Value
$683.09
PnL
+$896.41
Record
33%
302-622 (924)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,433.4
Value
$471.55
PnL
-$961.85
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Both legs:
Invested
$620.35
Value
$188.8
PnL
-$431.55
Record
54%
62-52 (114)
Invested
$63
Value
$63
PnL
+$0
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$6.88
PnL
-$3.11
Record
52%
6814-6216 (13030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.