Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Buccaneers (98%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (40%) · Panthers at 2.2¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Buccaneers98¢Panthers2¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 40%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 2.2¢

-97% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidPanthers at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Buccaneers 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Buccaneers98%

Panthers2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buccaneers3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,773

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Panthers2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,537

Combined PnL+$18.45

Buccaneers — 60%Panthers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NE neymar1	Buccaneersavg 25¢	$555.49	$1.5K	+$1.5K	33% 302-622 (924)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Panthersavg 75¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$7.12	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Panthersavg 47¢	$64.13	$89.7	+$25.56	55% 3020-2458 (5478)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Buccaneersavg 53¢	$62.54	$30.09	-$32.45	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
Nooserac<$100	Buccaneersavg 63¢	$63	$25.5	-$37.5	52% 5290-4864 (10154)

neymar1

Buccaneers

Invested

$555.49

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

UpTheBluesCTR

Panthers

Invested

$1,067.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$7.12

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$64.13

Value

$89.7

PnL

+$25.56

Record

55%

3020-2458 (5478)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$62.54

Value

$30.09

PnL

-$32.45

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Nooserac<$100

Buccaneers

Invested

$63

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

52%

5290-4864 (10154)

Research grade

AvoidPanthers at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Buccaneers 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.4%

2.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2880.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

2980.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.