Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Buccaneers (99%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (43%) · Panthers at 1.3¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Panthers
7
Panthers 43%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
$-1.1K
39.4¢ → 1.3¢
-97% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPanthers at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Buccaneers 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Panthersavg 39.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.3K | -$600.86 | 55% 43817-36057 (79874) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Buccaneersavg 48.1¢ | $1.1K | $900.83 | -$210.21 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
| └ Panthers leg | Panthersavg 49.1¢ | $305.04 | $457.08 | +$152.04 | |
| └ Buccaneers leg | Buccaneersavg 48.1¢ | $806 | $443.75 | -$362.25 | |
CH chiefphi | Buccaneersavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $530 | -$510 | 54% 62-52 (114) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Buccaneersavg 23¢ | $32.42 | $37.36 | +$4.93 | 48% 930-995 (1925) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Buccaneersavg 49¢ | $19.6 | $10.6 | -$9 | 52% 6814-6216 (13030) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Panthersavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $3.68 | +$0.97 | 55% 3020-2458 (5478) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Panthersavg 61¢ | $1.56 | $1.88 | +$0.32 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Buccaneersavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $1.33 | -$0.97 | 51% 4110-3965 (8075) |
RN1CTRInvested
$1,910.01
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$600.86
Record
55%
43817-36057 (79874)
Invested
$1,111.04
Value
$900.83
PnL
-$210.21
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,040
Value
$530
PnL
-$510
Record
54%
62-52 (114)
Invested
$32.42
Value
$37.36
PnL
+$4.93
Record
48%
930-995 (1925)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$10.6
PnL
-$9
Record
52%
6814-6216 (13030)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$3.68
PnL
+$0.97
Record
55%
3020-2458 (5478)
Invested
$1.56
Value
$1.88
PnL
+$0.32
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$0.97
Record
51%
4110-3965 (8075)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.