Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Buccaneers (60%) · Buccaneers at 99¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Buccaneers99¢Panthers1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buccaneers

Consensus Traders

Buccaneers 60%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 99¢

+72% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Buccaneers99%

Panthers1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers2 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares7,670

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Buccaneers3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares5,044

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Panthers — 40%Buccaneers — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Panthersavg 34.9¢	$2.6K	$5.4K	+$2.7K	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
Nooserac	Buccaneersavg 68¢	$2.4K	$1.0K	$-1.4K	52% 5290-4864 (10154)
HO HomeRunHazard	Buccaneersavg 28¢	$283.3	$293.19	+$9.89	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
JU justaluckydude	Buccaneersavg 45¢	$250.91	$161.82	-$89.09	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Panthersavg 53.5¢	$71.25	$94.59	+$23.34	55% 3020-2458 (5478)

RN1CTR

Panthers

Invested

$2,633.37

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Nooserac

Buccaneers

Invested

$2,363

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

52%

5290-4864 (10154)

HomeRunHazard

Buccaneers

Invested

$283.3

Value

$293.19

PnL

+$9.89

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

justaluckydude

Buccaneers

Invested

$250.91

Value

$161.82

PnL

-$89.09

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$71.25

Value

$94.59

PnL

+$23.34

Record

55%

3020-2458 (5478)

Research grade

NeutralBuccaneers at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Buccaneers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buccaneers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.