Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Buccaneers (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Buccaneers (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (60%) · Panthers at 1.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Panthers
5
Panthers 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$9.7
59.1¢ → 1.1¢
-98% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPanthers at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Buccaneers 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Buccaneersavg 59.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$9.96 | 52% 6814-6216 (13030) |
| └ Panthers leg | Panthersavg 40¢ | $406.81 | $626.09 | +$219.28 | |
| └ Buccaneers leg | Buccaneersavg 59.6¢ | $648.5 | $419.27 | -$229.24 | |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Panthersavg 59¢ | $592.86 | $612.07 | +$19.22 | 55% 12164-10045 (22209) |
UP UpTheBlues | Buccaneersavg 38¢ | $115.14 | $116.66 | +$1.52 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
TA takeormake | Buccaneersavg 43¢ | $106.21 | $95.1 | -$11.11 | 55% 3020-2458 (5478) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Panthersavg 62¢ | $16.02 | $15.89 | -$0.13 | 55% 9094-7490 (16584) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Panthersavg 40¢ | $0.4 | $0.62 | +$0.21 | 56% 2044-1603 (3647) |
Invested
$1,055.31
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$9.96
Record
52%
6814-6216 (13030)
Both legs:
Invested
$592.86
Value
$612.07
PnL
+$19.22
Record
55%
12164-10045 (22209)
Invested
$115.14
Value
$116.66
PnL
+$1.52
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$106.21
Value
$95.1
PnL
-$11.11
Record
55%
3020-2458 (5478)
Invested
$16.02
Value
$15.89
PnL
-$0.13
Record
55%
9094-7490 (16584)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.62
PnL
+$0.21
Record
56%
2044-1603 (3647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.