Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
49ers vs. Falcons: O/U 50.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$4.1K
$7.88
48.2¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$18.25 | 68% 3515-1686 (5201) |
 StudyPrediction | Underavg 53¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$10 | 51% 3587-3459 (7046) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1 | Underavg 52¢ | $513.01 | $513.01 | +$4.93 | 53% 1871-1637 (3508) |
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $500 | $489.8 | -$10.2 | 62% 3694-2243 (5937) |
MO mooseborzoii | Underavg 51¢ | $244.29 | $249.08 | +$4.79 | 50% 1012-1005 (2017) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $93.12 | $93.12 | -$0 | 66% 2852-1491 (4343) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $10.56 | $10.56 | +$0.11 | 61% 4513-2865 (7378) |
Invested
$1,751.52
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$18.25
Record
68%
3515-1686 (5201)
StudyPredictionInvested
$1,060
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$10
Record
51%
3587-3459 (7046)
Invested
$513.01
Value
$513.01
PnL
+$4.93
Record
53%
1871-1637 (3508)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$500
Value
$489.8
PnL
-$10.2
Record
62%
3694-2243 (5937)
Invested
$244.29
Value
$249.08
PnL
+$4.79
Record
50%
1012-1005 (2017)
Invested
$93.12
Value
$93.12
PnL
-$0
Record
66%
2852-1491 (4343)
Invested
$10.56
Value
$10.56
PnL
+$0.11
Record
61%
4513-2865 (7378)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.