49ers vs. Falcons: O/U 48.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 64¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 25

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$450.13

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 64¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares11,095

Combined PnL+$152.81

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares6,231

Combined PnL-$602.94

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
heyboy800	Overavg 54.5¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$81.4	61% 786-502 (1288)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Underavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$669.96	54% 872-742 (1614)
RN1	Overavg 60.6¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$89.46	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 58.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$27.84	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58.4¢	$754.76	$685.5	-$69.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.8¢	$572.26	$613.68	+$41.42
0xheavy888	Overavg 53¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	56% 6385-5115 (11500)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 41¢	$466.87	$535.2	+$68.32	46% 987-1174 (2161)
AN Anon455	Overavg 53¢	$385	$530	+$145	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$58.5	$57.2	-$1.3	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.65	-$0.25	51% 4110-3965 (8075)

heyboy800

Over

Invested

$3,033.5

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$81.4

Record

61%

786-502 (1288)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Under

Invested

$2,282.84

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$669.96

Record

54%

872-742 (1614)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,585.46

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$89.46

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,327.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$27.84

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Both legs:

Over$754.7658.4¢-$69.26

Under$572.2643.8¢+$41.42

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$1,008.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

6385-5115 (11500)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$466.87

Value

$535.2

PnL

+$68.32

Record

46%

987-1174 (2161)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$385

Value

$530

PnL

+$145

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.5

Value

$57.2

PnL

-$1.3

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.25

Record

51%

4110-3965 (8075)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.