Spread: Falcons (-2.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (67%) · Falcons at 52¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Falcons
3
Falcons 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$3.99
Research grade
NeutralFalcons at 52%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Falconsavg 61.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$305.13 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
| └ Falcons leg | Falconsavg 61.8¢ | $1.1K | $923.23 | -$173.13 | |
| └ 49ers leg | 49ersavg 70¢ | $420 | $288 | -$132 | |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | 49ersavg 32¢ | $38.11 | $57.12 | +$19.01 | 52% 6908-6279 (13187) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Falconsavg 99.9¢ | $35.96 | $18.72 | -$17.24 | 99% 9192-130 (9322) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Falconsavg 37¢ | $2.89 | $5.12 | +$2.23 | 56% 2060-1620 (3680) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,516.37
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$305.13
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.11
Value
$57.12
PnL
+$19.01
Record
52%
6908-6279 (13187)
Invested
$35.96
Value
$18.72
PnL
-$17.24
Record
99%
9192-130 (9322)
Invested
$2.89
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$2.23
Record
56%
2060-1620 (3680)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.