Spread: 49ers (-5.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (75%) · Falcons at 67¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

49ers34¢Falcons66¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 75%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$385.6

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 66.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

49ers34%

Falcons67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares8,698

Combined PnL-$664.13

49ers2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,461

Combined PnL+$278.53

Falcons — 75%49ers — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 49ers) and the top 1000 (5 on Falcons) disagree here.

whaleFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-picked49ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Falconsavg 62.9¢	$3.7K	$3.2K	-$432.33	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
EL ElectricyCTR	49ersavg 37¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$277.59	62% 355-218 (573)
SU SunlineTicker	Falconsavg 63¢	$793.03	$654.56	-$138.47	68% 3522-1694 (5216)
AN Anon455	Falconsavg 63¢	$630.65	$545.83	-$84.83	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
28 2829	Falconsavg 55¢	$308	$305.2	-$2.8	47% 347-395 (742)
RN1CTR<$100	49ersavg 45¢	$94.59	$95.53	+$0.94	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Falconsavg 63¢	$32.13	$26.52	-$5.61	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Falconsavg 49¢	$10.29	$10.19	-$0.1	56% 471-363 (834)

HomeRunHazard

Falcons

Invested

$3,673.02

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$432.33

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

ElectricyCTR

49ers

Invested

$1,208.32

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$277.59

Record

62%

355-218 (573)

SunlineTicker

Falcons

Invested

$793.03

Value

$654.56

PnL

-$138.47

Record

68%

3522-1694 (5216)

Anon455

Falcons

Invested

$630.65

Value

$545.83

PnL

-$84.83

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

2829

Falcons

Invested

$308

Value

$305.2

PnL

-$2.8

Record

47%

347-395 (742)

RN1CTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$94.59

Value

$95.53

PnL

+$0.94

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Falcons

Invested

$32.13

Value

$26.52

PnL

-$5.61

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

averagejoetraders<$100

Falcons

Invested

$10.29

Value

$10.19

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

471-363 (834)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 67%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on 49ers) and the top 1000 (5 on Falcons) disagree here.

whaleFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-picked49ers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.