Spread: 49ers (-4.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (64%) · Falcons at 88¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

49ers13¢Falcons87¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$29.3

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 87.5¢

+48% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

49ers13%

Falcons88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,788

Combined PnL+$12.77

49ers4 traders

Total Value$704.32

Total Shares1,838

Combined PnL-$42.07

Falcons — 64%49ers — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Falconsavg 49.7¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$478.92	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 49.7¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$555.18
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 35¢	$593.15	$516.88	-$76.26
HO HomeRunHazard	Falconsavg 64.6¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$79.75	55% 12164-10045 (22209)
AN Anon455	Falconsavg 51¢	$510	$610	+$100	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
GO goldmynameCTR	49ersavg 38¢	$246.24	$252.72	+$6.48	67% 85-42 (127)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	49ersavg 44.2¢	$280	$231.41	-$48.58	52% 6814-6216 (13030)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	49ersavg 39¢	$213.33	$213.33	+$0	68% 3522-1694 (5216)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Falconsavg 44¢	$88	$86	-$2	56% 471-363 (834)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	Falconsavg 44.6¢	$40.88	$39.41	-$1.47	52% 222-202 (424)
AD adururu<$100	Falconsavg 46.1¢	$42.29	$39.41	-$2.88	54% 295-248 (543)
TA takeormake<$100	Falconsavg 79¢	$36.34	$35.65	-$0.69	55% 3020-2458 (5478)
PA pauleta23<$100	Falconsavg 45¢	$10	$9.56	-$0.44	71% 17700-7191 (24891)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	49ersavg 50¢	$6.82	$6.85	+$0.03	67% 31285-15084 (46369)

RN1ARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$1,985.91

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$478.92

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Both legs:

Falcons$1,392.7749.7¢+$555.18

49ers$593.1535¢-$76.26

HomeRunHazard

Falcons

Invested

$1,658.79

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$79.75

Record

55%

12164-10045 (22209)

Anon455

Falcons

Invested

$510

Value

$610

PnL

+$100

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

goldmynameCTR

49ers

Invested

$246.24

Value

$252.72

PnL

+$6.48

Record

67%

85-42 (127)

justaluckydudeCTR

49ers

Invested

$280

Value

$231.41

PnL

-$48.58

Record

52%

6814-6216 (13030)

SunlineTickerCTR

49ers

Invested

$213.33

Value

$213.33

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

3522-1694 (5216)

averagejoetraders<$100

Falcons

Invested

$88

Value

$86

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

471-363 (834)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

Falcons

Invested

$40.88

Value

$39.41

PnL

-$1.47

Record

52%

222-202 (424)

adururu<$100

Falcons

Invested

$42.29

Value

$39.41

PnL

-$2.88

Record

54%

295-248 (543)

takeormake<$100

Falcons

Invested

$36.34

Value

$35.65

PnL

-$0.69

Record

55%

3020-2458 (5478)

pauleta23<$100

Falcons

Invested

$10

Value

$9.56

PnL

-$0.44

Record

71%

17700-7191 (24891)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.