Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Falcons, while the market favors 49ers (51%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (64%) · Falcons at 50¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

49ers51¢Falcons49¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

-$279.61

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 49.5¢

-10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

49ers51%

Falcons50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons7 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares19,781

Combined PnL-$251.29

49ers4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,004

Combined PnL-$28.31

Falcons — 64%49ers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

91h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFalcons 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Falconsavg 54.6¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$300.72	55% 12144-10023 (22167)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Falconsavg 55¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$100.13	50% 1014-1005 (2019)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Falconsavg 59¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$33.9	82% 3267-718 (3985)
RN1CTR	Falconsavg 49.3¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$6.78	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Falconsavg 59¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$23.58	48% 215-237 (452)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Falconsavg 58¢	$999.84	$1.0K	+$10.28	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 58¢	$589.84	$590.11	+$0.28
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 41¢	$410	$420	+$10
UP UpTheBlues	49ersavg 52¢	$931.71	$904.83	-$26.88	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
DO DolphinBaller	49ersavg 42¢	$420	$420	+$0	46% 62-74 (136)
GO goldmyname	49ersavg 41¢	$292.05	$299.17	+$3.56	66% 83-42 (125)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	49ersavg 43¢	$215	$210	-$5	51% 985-937 (1922)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Falconsavg 58¢	$32.48	$32.48	+$0	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Falconsavg 58¢	$11.6	$11.6	+$0	75% 2665-901 (3566)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Falcons

Invested

$3,405.04

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$300.72

Record

55%

12144-10023 (22167)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Falcons

Invested

$2,202.7

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$100.13

Record

50%

1014-1005 (2019)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Falcons

Invested

$2,000.1

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$33.9

Record

82%

3267-718 (3985)

RN1CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,880.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$6.78

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

BTCGambler247CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,390.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$23.58

Record

48%

215-237 (452)

Anon455ARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$999.84

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.28

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

Both legs:

Falcons$589.8458¢+$0.28

49ers$41041¢+$10

UpTheBlues

49ers

Invested

$931.71

Value

$904.83

PnL

-$26.88

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

DolphinBaller

49ers

Invested

$420

Value

$420

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

62-74 (136)

goldmyname

49ers

Invested

$292.05

Value

$299.17

PnL

+$3.56

Record

66%

83-42 (125)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

49ers

Invested

$215

Value

$210

PnL

-$5

Record

51%

985-937 (1922)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$32.48

Value

$32.48

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$11.6

Value

$11.6

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

91h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFalcons 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.