49ers vs. Falcons
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (50%) · 49ers at 58¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
49ers
4
49ers 50%
$16.8K
$194.54
58.3¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Neutral49ers at 58%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alandestroy | 49ersavg 58¢ | $13.3K | $13.3K | -$0 | 57% 21-16 (37) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Falconsavg 38.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$199.69 | 50% 995-979 (1974) |
DA darkumbreon88 | 49ersavg 61.6¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$70.97 | 65% 1520-814 (2334) |
 beet420CTR | Falconsavg 33¢ | $228.63 | $294.45 | +$65.82 | 53% 242-217 (459) |
Invested
$13,277
Value
$13.3K
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
21-16 (37)
Invested
$2,020.49
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$199.69
Record
50%
995-979 (1974)
Invested
$1,063.37
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$70.97
Record
65%
1520-814 (2334)
beet420CTRInvested
$228.63
Value
$294.45
PnL
+$65.82
Record
53%
242-217 (459)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.